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天量预示多空分歧

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年10月20日 21:40:14
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(  11月)(下)(旬)(以)(来)(,股)(指)(创)(新)(高)(和)(成)(交)(天)(量)(已)(然)(成)(为)(了)(A股)(市)(场)(的)(新)(常)(态)(,11月)(27日)(的)(走)(势)(也)(未)(能)(例)(外)(。2631.40点)(的)(新)(高)(配)(合)(6185亿)(元)(历)(史)(天)(量)(,使)(得)(上)(证)(指)(数)(走)(出)(了)(六)(连)(阳)(的)(走)(势)(,不)(过)(盘)(中)(震)(荡)(的)(加)(剧)(,或)(许)(意)(味)(着)(股)(指)(短)(线)(的)(回)(调)(也)(即)(将)(到)(来)(。  从)(股)(指)(27日)(全)(天)(的)(走)(势)(来)(看)(,随)(着)(券)(商)(、保)(险)(、地)(产)(等)(权)(重)(板)(块)(的)(再)(度)(启)(动)(,股)(指)(连)(续)(上)(攻)(的)(走)(势)(得)(以)(延)(续)(,但)(短)(线)(获)(利)(盘)(的)(不)(断)(涌)(出)(,使)(得)(股)(指)(盘)(中)(的)(震)(荡)(也)(随)(之)(加)(剧)(,尤)(其)(是)(午)(后)(券)(商)(板)(块)(的)(再)(度)(拉)(升)(,使)(得)(资)(金)(出)(逃)(的)(迹)(象)(越)(发)(明)(显)(,并)(带)(动)(股)(指)(一)(度)(翻)(绿)(。尽)(管)(股)(指)(尾)(盘)(出)(现)(快)(速)(回)(升)(并)(以)(全)(天)(高)(位)(收)(盘)(,但)(超)(过)(6000亿)(元)(的)(天)(量)(成)(交)(也)(意)(味)(着)(多)(空)(双)(方)(对)(于)(短)(线)(走)(势)(的)(分)(歧)(开)(始)(加)(大)(,这)(导)(致)(股)(指)(短)(线)(出)(现)(调)(整)(或)(将)(很)(难)(避)(免)(。  毫)(无)(疑)(问)(,在)(央)(行)(上)(周)(意)(外)(降)(息)(之)(后)(,A股)(市)(场)(步)(入)(牛)(市)(已)(然)(成)(为)(了)(市)(场)(人)(士)(的)(共)(识)(,但)(由)(于)(短)(线)(股)(指)(涨)(势)(过)(猛)(,获)(利)(盘)(的)(增)(多)(使)(得)(股)(指)(短)(线)(走)(势)(增)(添)(了)(更)(多)(的)(变)(数)(。  例)(如)(,12月)(份)(首)(发)(原)(股)(东)(限)(售)(股)(的)(解)(禁)(市)(值)(为)(1130.58亿)(元)(,比)(11月)(份)(的)(176.29亿)(元)(增)(加)(了)(954.29亿)(元)(,为)(其)(6倍)(多)(。股)(改)(、定)(向)(增)(发)(等)(部)(分)(的)(非)(首)(发)(原)(股)(东)(解)(禁)(市)(值)(为)(1244.93亿)(元)(,比)(11月)(份)(的)(458.42亿)(元)(增)(加)(了)(786.51亿)(元)(,为)(其)(2倍)(多)(。  在)(股)(指)(近)(来)(大)(涨)(的)(背)(景)(之)(下)(,这)(些)(限)(售)(股)(的)(解)(禁)(将)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(增)(加)(市)(场)(的)(抛)(压)(,使)(得)(股)(指)(短)(线)(的)(走)(势)(受)(挫)(。  然)(而)(,看)(好)(股)(指)(后)(市)(走)(势)(仍)(然)(是)(市)(场)(人)(士)(的)(普)(遍)(选)(择)(。如)(中)(银)(国)(际)(分)(析)(师)(张)(戬)(等)(就)(认)(为)(,尽)(管)(2015年)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(仍)(然)(面)(临)(一)(定)(的)(下)(行)(压)(力)(,但)(上)(市)(公)(司)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(增)(速)(可)(能)(较)(2014年)(小)(幅)(回)(升)(。同)(时)(,市)(场)(资)(金)(面)(仍)(有)(望)(在)(大)(类)(资)(产)(配)(置)(转)(移)(过)(程)(中)(得)(到)(改)(善)(。不)(过)(,虽)(然)(货)(币)(政)(策)(定)(向)(宽)(松)(基)(调)(大)(概)(率)(延)(续)(,但)(信)(用)(创)(造)(体)(系)(重)(建)(仍)(需)(时)(日)(,宏)(观)(流)(动)(性)(总)(量)(扩)(张)(存)(在)(一)(定)(的)(难)(度)(,这)(将)(制)(约)(市)(场)(上)(行)(空)(间)(。在)(无)(风)(险)(资)(产)(收)(益)(率)(下)(行)(、居)(民)(权)(益)(资)(产)(配)(置)(比)(例)(较)(低)(、海)(外)(资)(金)(流)(入)(加)(大)(背)(景)(下)(,市)(场)(资)(金)(面)(改)(善)(趋)(势)(有)(望)(延)(续)(。同)(时)(,伴)(随)(上)(市)(公)(司)(盈)(利)(增)(速)(小)(幅)(上)(行)(,A股)(市)(场)(整)(体)(估)(值)(水)(平)(有)(望)(继)(续)(抬)(升)(。  作)(者)(:张)(志)(斌)(
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